ARIMA Model based Time Series Modelling and Prediction of Foreign Exchange Rate against US Dollar

Exchange rate forecasting has proven challenging for players like traders and professionals in this current financial industry. Econometric and statistical models are often utilized in the analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rate. Governments, financial organizations, and investors prioritize analyzing the future behaviour of currency pairs because this analyzing technique is being utilized to understand a country's economic status and to make a decision on whether to do any transactions of goods from that country. Several models are used to predict this kind of time-series with adequate accuracy. However, because of the random nature of these time series, strong predicting performance is difficult to achieve. During the Covid-19 situation, there is a drastic change in the exchange rate worldwide. This paper examines the behaviour of Australia's (AUD) daily foreign exchange rates against the US Dollar from January 2016 to December 2020 and forecasts the 2021 exchange rate using the ARIMA model. For better accuracy, technical indicators such as Interest Rate Differential, GDP Growth Rate and Unemployment Rate are also taken into account. In exchange rate forecasting, there are various types of performance measures based on which the accuracy of the forecasted result is computed. This paper examines seven performance measures and found that the accuracy of the forecasted results is adequate with the actual data. © 2022 IEEE.

LSTM Model based Time Series Modelling and Prognosis of Foreign Exchange Rates against US Dollar

In today's global economy, precision in projecting macroeconomic characteristics such as the foreign exchange rate, or at the very least properly gauging the trend, is critical for any prospective investment. In recent time, application of artificial intelligence-based forecasting models for macroeconomic variables has been extremely fruitful. The global currency rate changed dramatically during the Covid-19 incident. This study examines the behaviour of the Australian dollar's (AUD) daily exchange rates against the US dollar's (USD) daily exchange rates from January 2016 to December 2020 and makes LSTM RNN-based predictions for the 2021 exchange rate. There are different sorts of performance metrics used in exchange rate forecasting to compute the accuracy of the projected result. This research investigates six performance metrics and discovers that the accuracy of the anticipated outcomes is satisfactory when compared to the actual data. © 2022 IEEE.

Myopericarditis in a Young Adult Secondary to COVID-19 Vaccination

We present the case of a healthy 29-year-old male with no significant medical history who presented with electrocardiogram findings consistent with pericarditis and elevated troponin levels, commonly seen in myocarditis, after receiving his second Pfizer-BioNTec vaccination for SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2). The patient had significant clinical improvement shortly after receiving aspirin and colchicine and was discharged home with these medications. His laboratory findings returned to baseline less than 2 weeks after his illness. While this case highlights the importance of diagnosis, intervention selection, and treatment of myopericarditis amid ongoing global vaccination campaigns, it should be emphasized that the benefits of vaccination considerably outweigh the risks.

A RECENT REVIEW ON: CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of China’s Hubei province and has rapidly spread all over the world. Until August 2020, >25 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection had been confirmed worldwide, causing >800,000 deaths. This disease was named by the World Health Organization (WHO) as COVID-19. Similar to SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, which are also caused by corona virus infections, COVID-19 mainly causes severe respiratory system damage;however, it also causes damage to multiple organs, including the gastrointestinal tract, the cardiovascular system and the nervous system. According to the WHO, common signs of infection include fever, cough, and respiratory difficulties like shortness of breath. Serious cases can lead to pneumonia, kidney failure, and even death. The main aim of the present review article was to summarize the current knowledge of COVID-19, such as the transmission process, diagnostic methods, clinical feature pathological characteristics, and treatment measures.

An Automated Model for Booking Appointment in Health Care Sector

This technical paper primarily focuses on requirement of automation in medical sector. As in the current scenario, we can see that from November 2019 to April 2021, more than 15 crores[1] patients were admitted to hospitals and this number is only contributed by Covid-19 without considering other viruses and diseases. Thus, it is the need of hour to introduce a system which can resolve the problems in appointment booking in such a crisis.As of now, world is reaching towards a population of 8 billion[2] but only 164,500[3] hospitals are available worldwide in 2015 which is quite low with respect to population. So our model helps in managing the appointments in such a large extent which will ultimately reduce the load on hospitals. Our model provides the facilities like instant appointment booking with the generation of unique patient ID which will identify any patient worldwide. Thus it will help in tracking any patient's medical reports with the option of online payment, reducing the use of paper and this will be a big step in saving the trees and environment. Our model also gives a comparison feature, enabling the users to get a glance of various prices, ratings of hospitals and doctors. Another important feature which our model provides is locating nearest hospitals from patient's location. © 2021 IEEE.

Clinical Profiles and Outcomes of COVID-19 in Kidney Transplant Recipients: Experience From a High-Volume Public Sector Transplant Center in India.

OBJECTIVES: Data are so far limited on outcomes of kidney transplant recipients with COVID-19 seen at public sector hospitals in developing countries with limited resources. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively investigated a cohort of 157 kidney transplant recipients (75% living and 25% deceased donors) seen at a public sector transplant hospital in India from March to December 2020 who had reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction tests that confirmed COVID-19. Demographic data, immunosuppression regimens, clinical profiles, treatments, and outcomes were analyzed. In our center, maintenance immunosuppression was reduced according to disease severity and case-by-case evaluations. There were also 53 patients with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 symptoms who received home care to optimize the utilization of scarce resources during travel restrictions. RESULTS: In our kidney transplant recipient group, median age was 43 years (133 male; 24 female patients); recipients presented at a median of 4 years after transplant. The most common comorbidities included arterial hypertension (73%) and diabetes (24%); presenting symptoms at the time of COVID-19 positivity included cough (49%), fever (58%), and sputum production (32%). Clinical severity ranged from asymptomatic (4%), mild (45%), moderate (31%), and severe (20%) disease. Statistically significant risk factors for mortality included older age, dyspnea, severe disease, obesity, allograft dysfunction prior to COVID-19, acute kidney injury, higher levels of inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, interleukin 6, procalcitonin), abnormality in chest radiography, and intensive care/ventilator requirements (P < .05). Overall patient mortality was 9.5% (15/157) in hospitalized patients, 21% (15/71) in patients in the intensive care unit, 100% (15/15) in patients who required ventilation, and 0% among those in home treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate in kidney transplant recipients with COVID-19 was higher than in the nonimmunosuppressed general population (1.2%) in India. To our knowledge, this is a largest single-center study of kidney transplant recipients with COVID-19 so far.

Consequences of the first and second COVID-19 wave on kidney transplant recipients at a large Indian transplant centre.

BACKGROUND: There is a scarcity of data comparing the consequences of first and second COVID-19 waves on kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) in India. METHODS: We conducted a single-centre retrospective study of 259 KTRs with COVID-19 to compare first wave (March 15-December 31 2020, n = 157) and second wave (April 1-May 31 2021, n = 102). RESULTS: KTRs during second wave were younger (43 vs. 40 years; p-value .04) and also included paediatric patients (0 vs. 5.9%; p-value .003). Symptoms were milder during the second wave (45 vs. 62.7%; p-value .007); COVID-19 positive patients had less frequent cough (32 vs. 13.8%; p-value .001), fever was less frequent (58 vs. 37%; p-value .001), and we observed fewer co-morbidities (11 vs. 20.6%; p-value .04). The percentages of neutrophils (77 vs. 83%; p-value .001) and serum ferritin (439 vs. 688; p-value .0006) were higher during second wave, while lymphocyte counts were reduced (20 vs. 14%; p-value .0001). Hydroxychloroquine (11 vs. 0%; p-value .0001) and tocilizumab (7 vs. 0%; p-value .004) were more frequently prescribed during first wave, while utilization of dexamethasone (6 vs. 27%; p-value .0001) and remdesivir (47 vs. 65%; p-value .03) increased during the second wave. Mucormycosis (1.3 vs. 10%; p-value .01) and ICU admissions (20 vs. 37.2%; p-value .002) were more frequent during second wave. The 28-day mortality rate (9.6 vs. 10%; p-value 1) was not different. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a different clinical spectrum of COVID-19 amongst KTR with similar mortality between the two waves at a large Indian transplant centre.

Is virtual cardiology training here to stay in the post-covid era?

Background In April 2020, formal face-face cardiology training was put on pause due to COVID-19. We adapted by utilising a video-conferencing platform to continue some form of Cardiology education on a national scale, and maintain morale. This programme, known as CardioWebinar, has continued ever since. We looked to study the effectiveness of delivering virtual Cardiology education 1 year into the COVID pandemic. Methods Expert speakers throughout the UK were sought after via social media and 'word of mouth.' Weekly webinars were organised and advertised (Canva posters) on social media (Twitter), as well as via the British Cardiovascular Society and British Junior Cardiologists' Association (BJCA) media links. Each webinar was scheduled mid-week at 17:30 (UK). Interested attendees registered for free using an online ticketing platform (Eventbrite). Webinars were delivered using an online video conferencing platform (Zoom) which required a £14.99 monthly subscription. Each webinar consisted of a 40-minute presentation followed by Q&A (20mins). All webinars were recorded and later accessible for free on the BJCA TV Gallery. A Learning Management System (LMS) was used to collect feedback after each session and generate certificates of attendance for attendee appraisal. We systematically reviewed the LMS feedback of live attendees from 6 consecutive webinars delivered between Jan- Feb 2021. We further surveyed our most recent (March 2021) attendees (145 participants) via an extended questionnaire through the LMS exploring their experiences of our virtual education. Results 55 CardioWebinars have been delivered since April 2020. The speakers have been predominantly Consultant Cardiologists from the UK. Some of the recordings have had >1000 views. Other than the video platform subscription, no cost was incurred in the delivery of this entire programme. We collected feedback from 392 respondents (∼65 live attendees per webinar) from each session between Jan- Feb 2021. The sessions were rated as 'very good-excellent' by 97%. We collected a further 145 responses from March 2021 attendees to an extended questionnaire. 90% rated the whole series as 'very good -excellent' in supporting their cardiology education during the Covid pandemic, and 84% felt the programme sufficiently covered even the more challenging areas of the Cardiology curriculum (e.g aortopathies). 90% of the respondents felt that their work-life schedule allowed them to join the live webinars at this time. The respondents where predominantly from the UK (91%), though included an international audience (9%). Whilst 74% of attendees were cardiology trainees, the remaining 26% included physiologists, nursing staff, consultants and other junior doctors. 99% felt that virtual education should continue to play a formal part in their training after the COVID pandemic. Conclusion Webinars allow everyone interested in cardiac care across the world the opportunity to hear experts teach, and without a travel cost. They are cheap and easy to organise. Whilst the 'social' aspect of training is limited, this study suggests that webinars will remain an integral part of the post- Covid era.

Reduced vitamin d levels associated with increased COVID-19 related deaths

RATIONALE: Vitamin D supports immunity and inflammation by inhibiting proinflammatory cytokine release from macrophages and up-regulating the expression of anti-microbial peptides exhibiting anti-viral activity. Respiratory epithelial cells also convert inactive 25(OH)D (main circulating vitamin D) to 1,25(OH)2D3 enabling high local concentrations of this biologically active form to increase the expression of vitamin D-regulated genes. Studies continue to investigate the therapeutic effects and establish the optimal serum levels of 25(OH)D required to reduce the impact of respiratory tract infections whilst avoiding toxic hypercalcaemic high-dose 'blind' supplementation. Analysing patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 RNA) during the first phase of the pandemic, objectives and focus on reporting were to (1) document the population where measured vitamin D levels are readily available whilst quantifying those on supplements and (2) compare outcome at discharge depending on most recent available vitamin D status. METHODS: Computer data including clinical outcomes were examined for the 516 patients (55% male) with mean age 67.4 (SD 18.3, range 0 to 100) years admitted from our semi-rural predominantly white European population to our District General Hospitals (Teaching) during the 4 months (March to June 2020) in the first phase of the COVID-19 illness in the UK. Outcomes (death during admission versus discharged alive) were analysed with SPSS comparing those with reduced versus adequate vitamin D levels. RESULTS: Collectively (n=516), vitamin D levels (historical or updated) were available on 163 (31.5%) of patients;17 (3.3%) undertaken during the admission. Data were skewed with median level 47 (interquartile range 24.1 to 66.9) nmol/L. 74 (14.3%) were already on vitamin D supplements and for an additional 10 (1.9%) this was initiated during the admission. Among the 163 patients, 86 (52.7%) had reduced vitamin D levels (deficient or insufficient) and these had worse outcomes with 29/86 (33.7%) having died during the admission compared with 13/74 (17.6%) of those with adequate levels: X2 (df 1, n=163) 6.02, p=.014. Table 1 categorises distribution of values. CONCLUSIONS: Data highlight (1) less than a third of admitted COVID-19 patients have recorded vitamin D levels and of these more than half have reduced levels, (2) 14.3% are already taking vitamin D, (3) very few get tested during the acute admission or get started on supplements, and (4) there is a statistical difference highlighting adverse outcome (death versus discharged alive) for those with reduced vitamin D levels.